{"schema":1,"updatedAt":1787448615077,"methodologyVersion":"2026-07-29.v2","license":{"name":"Public aggregate statistics — quote and cite with attribution","attribution":"When's the Power Back? (whensthepowerback.com)","url":"https://whensthepowerback.com/research/utility-etr-reliability#cite","note":"Aggregates on this endpoint may be quoted and cited with attribution and a link. Event-level records and programmatic bulk access are not part of the public dataset."},"sample":{"gradedEvents":600,"totalScored":8785,"comparableEvents":46,"trackedClosed":16743,"windowStart":1787265902008,"windowEnd":1787448615077},"headline":{"utilityPushbackRate":83,"avgLaterRevisions":6,"utilityMedianAbsoluteErrorHours":2,"independentMedianAbsoluteErrorHours":1.2},"metrics":{"independentWholeEventMae":{"label":"our median absolute error (whole event)","def":"Median absolute error, in hours, of every estimate we published across a completed outage, against its observed effective restoration (count first at/below 10% of peak and holding). Median across events."},"utilityPostedMae":{"label":"posted-time median absolute error (as recorded)","def":"Median absolute error, in hours, of the posted restoration times we recorded — a restoration time carried by the national county feed (the only posted-time source the event series records) — over the readings where one was present while meaningfully out, against the same observed restoration. Median across those events. Events where the utility posted a time that never reached that feed are NOT counted."},"independentOnPostedMae":{"label":"our median absolute error on the same posted-time events","def":"independentWholeEventMae restricted to the events counted by utilityPostedMae — same event population, whole-event alignment (not the same readings). It inherits that metric's posted-time source limitation exactly."},"timeMatchedHeadToHead":{"label":"time-matched head-to-head (same readings)","def":"Both graded at the identical readings where a recorded posted time — a restoration time carried by the national county feed (the only posted-time source the event series records) — AND our estimator both produced a value: the strictest like-for-like. Reported as a pair (posted vs ours) with its own n."},"utilityPushbackRate":{"label":"posted time moved later at least once","def":"Share of events carrying a recorded posted time — a restoration time carried by the national county feed (the only posted-time source the event series records) — where that time moved later by >30 minutes at least once before restoration. Earlier moves are not counted, and events whose posted time never reached that feed are not in the denominator."},"avgLaterRevisions":{"label":"average later revisions per posted-time event","def":"Mean count of >30-minute later moves of the recorded posted time per event carrying one — a restoration time carried by the national county feed (the only posted-time source the event series records) — counting 0 when it held."}},"headToHeadWinPct":49,"overall":{"scored":600,"closed":16743,"totalScored":8785,"medMae":1.8,"within":{"h1":34,"h2":55,"h4":75},"bias":0,"buckets":[{"magnitude":"500-2k","n":268,"medMae":1.9},{"magnitude":"<500","n":232,"medMae":1.7},{"magnitude":"2k-10k","n":96,"medMae":2.1},{"magnitude":"10k-50k","n":4,"medMae":9.1}],"official":{"n":43,"medMae":2,"bias":-0.7,"oursOnSame":1.2,"matched":{"n":41,"off":1,"ours":1.2},"pushed":{"n":46,"pct":83,"med":3},"changed":{"n":46,"pct":83,"med":4}},"firstFinal":{"n":600,"medFirst":2.7,"medFinal":0.9},"horizons":{"h1":{"n":563,"med":2.6},"h3":{"n":445,"med":2.5},"h6":{"n":269,"med":3.4}},"oldestT":1787265902008,"newestT":1787448615077},"trend":{"cohorts":[{"n":196,"fromT":1787265902008,"toT":1787319928159,"medErrPct":23,"medAbsH":1.8,"medLenH":8},{"n":196,"fromT":1787320829156,"toT":1787377521249,"medErrPct":28,"medAbsH":1.7,"medLenH":7},{"n":197,"fromT":1787377521249,"toT":1787448615077,"medErrPct":21,"medAbsH":1.9,"medLenH":9}],"deltaPct":-2,"lenDeltaH":1},"states":[{"state":"CA","name":"California","n":8,"slipPct":88,"revAvg":19.3,"utilityMaeHours":3.8,"independentMaeHours":6.4},{"state":"OR","name":"Oregon","n":7,"slipPct":86,"revAvg":2,"utilityMaeHours":1,"independentMaeHours":1.2},{"state":"MI","name":"Michigan","n":7,"slipPct":57,"revAvg":1.3,"utilityMaeHours":5,"independentMaeHours":1.2},{"state":"NY","name":"New York","n":6,"slipPct":100,"revAvg":4.5,"utilityMaeHours":2,"independentMaeHours":1.8},{"state":"WA","name":"Washington","n":5,"slipPct":60,"revAvg":2.2,"utilityMaeHours":2.3,"independentMaeHours":3.4}],"utilities":[{"name":"PACIFICORP","n":10,"slipPct":90,"revAvg":3.3,"utilityMaeHours":1.2,"independentMaeHours":1.4}],"utilitiesNearThreshold":[8,7,7],"examples":[{"d":"2026-08-22","fips":"40081","peak":420,"restoreHrs":10.5,"ourErrHours":2.4,"utilityErrHours":null},{"d":"2026-08-22","fips":"22091","peak":1633,"restoreHrs":25.8,"ourErrHours":4.3,"utilityErrHours":null},{"d":"2026-08-22","fips":"51810","peak":201,"restoreHrs":6.7,"ourErrHours":1.2,"utilityErrHours":null},{"d":"2026-08-22","fips":"28001","peak":2088,"restoreHrs":27.8,"ourErrHours":1.9,"utilityErrHours":null},{"d":"2026-08-22","fips":"21135","peak":823,"restoreHrs":9.8,"ourErrHours":27.2,"utilityErrHours":null},{"d":"2026-08-22","fips":"48183","peak":263,"restoreHrs":3.7,"ourErrHours":0.9,"utilityErrHours":null},{"d":"2026-08-22","fips":"22033","peak":3324,"restoreHrs":28.3,"ourErrHours":5.2,"utilityErrHours":null},{"d":"2026-08-22","fips":"72025","peak":773,"restoreHrs":16.8,"ourErrHours":12,"utilityErrHours":null},{"d":"2026-08-22","fips":"26075","peak":292,"restoreHrs":6,"ourErrHours":0.4,"utilityErrHours":null},{"d":"2026-08-22","fips":"45057","peak":252,"restoreHrs":9.8,"ourErrHours":1.2,"utilityErrHours":null}],"thresholds":{"stateMinN":5,"utilityMinN":10,"examplesCap":10}}